Calculating Natural Search Traffic via Google Trends
This
article comprises of the usefulness of google trends to forecast a traffic
volumes for keywords of SEO campaigns.
Very often we are asked to
provide expected visitor volumes from the core target keywords of an SEO
campaign. Of course, we explain the ?long tail’ and the fact that many
hundreds if not thousands of keywords will potentially be referring visitors,
but it enables the client to quantify their investment by getting some gauge on
expected sales and ROI. From the point
of view of an SEO however, it can be quite tricky to explain the ?pinch of salt’
aspect of any such estimates, and that there are no guarantees. It is a fine balancing act for SEO agencies ? avoiding the ?you said we would get 1000
visitors being #1 and we’re getting 100′ scenario is a must. Ensuring as high a level of accuracy as
possible when estimating volumes is therefore also a must.
We have
historically used a combination of the following tools and methods to gauge
potential traffic volumes from natural search:
- Google Adwords / MSN AdCenter / Yahoo traffic
estimators - Online tools such as Keyword Discovery, Wordtracker,
Wordze etc - Existing PPC / Organic search analytics data
- Creating temporary PPC campaigns to test volumes
- Google Trends
Google Trends has always been
useful to look at comparative volumes ? for example, we often use it to see
whether the singular or plural of a keyword is more popular. Beyond this, it
has always been quite limited. A recent Google
Trends update however, could revolutionise the forecasting of organic search
traffic.
Now that’s all well and good
but it still doesn’t help in estimating traffic for those terms, so how do you
do that? Well, any worthwhile SEO agency
should have a decent portfolio of #1 rankings for relatively high volume search
terms. I would also expect them to have a decent analytics package in place on
their clients’ sites, from which you can monitor the traffic those #1 rankings
generate. This is key.
You may have already achieved
a #1 position for ?blue widgets’, and so are thinking about expanding your
keyword list to include ?yellow widgets’.
You already know how many visitors your ?blue widgets’ success is worth,
so now use Google Trends to compare volumes with ?yellow widgets’. If ?blue widgets’ generates 100 visits per
day, and Trends tells you that ?yellow widgets’ is 0.6 of the volume, you know
to expect 60 visits per day from a #1 position for ?yellow widgets’. Useful eh!
This is great because it is
sector independent. Your results will
not lose accuracy if you are comparing a keyword from one sector to a keyword
from another.
Of course, number 1’s can
take time to achieve ? particularly for competitive keywords and relatively
unestablished sites. It can often be
useful therefore, to provide keyword traffic forecasts for other first page
positions. How? By making use of the notoriously
leaked AOL click through data. Knowing
that a #2 ranking is worth x% of the visitors of #1, #3 worth x-1% etc you can
quickly build up a list of visitor volumes for each of the top 10 positions, by
keyword.
Any such forecasts are
however just that. Forecasts,
estimations, approximations. We always
allow for a small variance due to influences on Click Rate (CTR) from the SERPS. Typical influencing factors are:
- Brand Terms ? Brand searches typically get a
higher CTR. - Long Tail Searches vs Generic Searches ? Long
tail searches generally result in a higher CTR because the searcher is
further through the ?search cycle’.
They know exactly what they are looking for and so are more likely
to click a search listing. - Titles and Meta Descriptions ? more compelling
search listing ?creative’ usually sees a higher CTR than something bland
and uninviting. - PPC ads ? Generally speaking, the more , so thanks Google! It’s nice to see a development that actually helps
rather than hinders us SEOs!About the author
Latitude group is a search
marketing agency established in 2001. SEO generates traffic; it is not
“instantaneous.” Utilizing search engine marketing programs such as
pay per click, traffic can be received in a matter of days instead of months.
As a result, every business should have a PPC program for their targeted
keywords.Tags: 1 rankings, balancing act, core target, estimators, gauge, google, google trends, guarantees, high volume, msn adcenter, natural search, online tools, pinch of salt, point of view, search google, search terms, search traffic, seo campaigns, target keywords, traffic volumes
Related Posts